CAD 5 Bank Forecast — April 2026

Each month, KnightsbridgeFX aggregates the Canadian dollar outlook from the economics desks of Canada’s five largest banks — TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank of Canada (NBC) — to produce a consensus forecast snapshot for USD/CAD and all major CAD pairs. Use this alongside our Monthly Forecast to build your currency transfer strategy.

Snapshot: Bank Consensus on USD/CAD (End-2026)

Key Themes Driving Bank Forecasts

Oil Price Tailwind: The dramatic surge in WTI crude above US$111/barrel in March 2026 — triggered by Middle East supply disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz — has injected fresh support for the Canadian dollar. All five banks acknowledge that sustained high oil prices represent the most significant near-term upside risk for CAD, given Canada’s role as a top global exporter of crude.

Bank of Canada Rate Trajectory: The BoC held at 2.25% on March 18, but with inflation at 1.8% and unemployment rising to 6.7%, the path toward further easing remains open. TD expects the rate to hold through 2027, while BMO anticipates a cut to 1.75%. Scotiabank sees potential rate hikes in H2 2026 if oil-driven inflation accelerates. CIBC and NBC expect the BoC to remain on hold or cut modestly. This divergence creates uncertainty for USD/CAD and makes forward contracts particularly valuable.

U.S.–Canada Trade Tensions: Tariffs on Canadian energy and goods remain a persistent drag on CAD sentiment. Scotiabank’s bullish USD/CAD target of 1.33 assumes meaningful trade resolution by H2 2026. BMO’s more conservative 1.37 forecast reflects ongoing tariff uncertainty. CIBC notes that the tariff overhang has suppressed business investment and export activity, creating a structural headwind for the loonie that cannot be fully offset by oil.

USD/CAD Quarterly Forecast by Bank — 2026

Quarterly figures represent end-of-quarter point forecasts. Sources: TD Economics, BMO Economics, Scotiabank Economics, CIBC Capital Markets, National Bank Economics (March 2026 publications). Averages calculated by KnightsbridgeFX. Not financial advice.

All-Pair Bank Forecast Summary — End-2026

End-of-2026 point estimates. Figures synthesized from bank economics publications and KnightsbridgeFX analysis. For informational purposes only.

Bank Outlooks: Summary

TD Economics: Projects USD/CAD easing to 1.35 by year-end, driven by a gradual rebalancing of U.S.–Canada trade flows and a stable BoC rate. TD expects the overnight rate to remain at 2.25% through 2027, providing a floor for CAD via stable rate differentials. The oil price surge is seen as a temporary positive that may fade in H2 if Middle East tensions ease.

BMO Economics: Takes a more cautious view, forecasting USD/CAD at 1.37 by end-2026. BMO expects the BoC to cut rates to 1.75%, which would widen the rate differential vs. the Fed and limit CAD upside. BMO sees the tariff overhang as the single largest headwind for CAD and does not expect a full resolution before Q4 2026.

Scotiabank: The most CAD-bullish of the five banks, projecting USD/CAD down to 1.33 by year-end. Scotiabank anticipates the BoC could begin hiking rates in H2 2026 if oil-driven inflation pushes CPI back above 2.5%. A hawkish BoC surprise in Q3 would be a significant positive for CAD. Scotiabank also notes that seasonal patterns tend to support CAD in Q2.

CIBC Capital Markets: Projects a moderate CAD recovery to 1.36 by Q4, with the BoC holding rates steady. CIBC identifies the April 29 BoC decision as a key pivot point and warns that a dovish surprise (rate cut + cautious MPR language) could push USD/CAD back toward 1.41–1.42 in the near term.

National Bank (NBC): Forecasts USD/CAD at 1.345 by year-end, second only to Scotiabank in CAD optimism. NBC’s base case assumes gradual trade de-escalation and a stable BoC through H1 2026. NBC has emphasized the structural support that elevated oil revenues provide for Canadian government fiscal balances, which indirectly supports CAD over the medium term.